2023: Uncertainty in Perspective
If a picture says a thousand words, when you see the following chart illustrating the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500, what’s it saying to you?
There is nothing unique about this chart, and there’s nothing significant about October 7. But this chart shares a common theme to many charts that are in my daily feeds — it’s eye-catching and reinforces a compelling story of “uncertainty.” And while the stock market isn’t necessarily a good indicator of the overall health of the economy, what I see in this chart resembles the feeling I have in my belly — a roller coaster ride which I’m hard pressed to understand which way it’s ultimately going and when.
As we all look to 2023, there is good reason to believe this roller coaster will remain in our future.
If I look ahead to the future of the economy, we currently have an incredibly low unemployment rate with many job openings that can take employers months to fill. My local Starbucks is still struggling to fill key roles to keep the store open on weekday afternoons. I repeat — a Starbucks is closed on a weekday afternoon. At the same time, we have rising inflation, a monetary policy that is proactively raising interest rates to slow the economy, and pundits predicting an inevitable recession. On top of all of this is the war in Ukraine which, in addition to the horrific humanitarian crisis, will continue to have a profound impact on global economies. #uncertainty
If I look ahead to the future of our cities, I see a global economy that has the potential to weave the amazing benefits of remote technologies with the amazing benefits of congregating with our peers in office environments once again. In the US alone, we are set to begin spending record levels on infrastructure which is actually a bi-partisan strategy for unlocking growth. People are coming back to the city; tourism is rebounding in major markets; and many of our clients’ venues are again full with cheering spectators. At the same time, we are experiencing rising crime that is fueling alarming headlines and seeing first-hand the impact of compounding climate concerns in our major cities and the infrastructure that supports them. #uncertainty
If I look ahead to the future of the health of our citizens, I see massive impact driven by nonprofit organizations across our nation and in our local communities. I look to some of our agency clients like the Anti-Defamation League hosting their upcoming summit, Never Is Now, to convene global activists combatting anti-semitism and hate. I look to Share Our Strength whose campaign No Kid Hungry has supported local organizations across the country to eliminate food insecurity in children. The significance of their work was highlighted during the pandemic when schools shut down. And just recently, the child poverty rate in the US hit a 50 year low! I see medical insurance now covering mental health screening which is a huge advancement for our society. At the same time, I’m reading headlines from Unicef saying, “Learning losses from COVID-19 could cost this generation of students close to $17 trillion in lifetime earnings’’ with a public education system that is void of any solutions to address it. It makes me sick. #uncertainty
If I look ahead to the future of our government, I see…I’m not even going to waste my time writing a paragraph. We see the same thing. #uncertainty
We all must continue to look ahead to the future. And as we do, we know uncertainty is a given. It’s always been a given. The only thing more dangerous than “uncertainty” is the false belief that we have certainty.
But as we look ahead, I’m reminded by my personal mentors in the business, that it is essential that we do so with a healthy perspective of what history tells us.
The perspective of gratitude that I’m still in the fight and able to sit here and even type this note!
The perspective that we live in an amazing country of amazing people who have dealt with far greater obstacles than what I have in front of me!
The perspective that I know I’m not alone in trying to navigate the world ahead!
The perspective that our friends at Avenue Q the Musical so beautifully shared…that where we are today is “only for now.”
So now take a look again at the chart of the S&P 500 I showed you up top.
Here’s some perspective for you.
With one click on the chart, you can change the view from “Year-to-Date” to “All-Time.”
With that one click, all of a sudden October, 7th 2022 tells a very different story.
So please embrace uncertainty but, for your own mental health, don’t forget perspective.
Let’s make 2023 a year to remember!
