The Next ‘Big One’ on Broadway: Stay Tuned

I spend a lot of time discussing the “data” of Broadway. That about sums up the excitement in my personal life.

But what I find myself jonesing for the most is an opinion with conviction. An opinion that has data, sure, but also has an equal amount of lived experience and wisdom that’s been passed down through the years.

So I was pleasantly surprised when I ran into Nick Scandalios at a recent holiday party, and he shared an opinion that truly piqued my interest.

“As an industry, we are long overdue for a big one,” was how the conversation started. Nick, for those who don’t know him, is a trusted leader in every possible way in the Broadway industry as Chief Operating Officer of the Nederlander Organization. He’s been in this industry long enough and has learned firsthand from so many legends of our industry’s past — when he has an opinion, I listen closely.

I asked in response, “What do you mean by ‘big one?’”

And without delay — without even the slightest hesitation — Nick rattled off from memory the following:

1972 Grease

1974 A Chorus Line

1977 Annie

1979 Evita

1980 42nd Street

1982 CATS

1987 Les Miz

1988 Phantom

1991 Miss Saigon

1994 Beauty and the Beast

1996 RENT

1997 The Lion King and Chicago

2001 Mamma Mia

2003 Wicked

2005 Jersey Boys

2011 Book of Mormon (6 year gap)

2015 Hamilton

Wait, what about MJ? Moulin Rouge? Hadestown? Aladdin? Kinky Boots? Or what about Beautiful, the Producers or Hairspray? When I asked for his definition of blockbuster, he pointedly responded that there have been many commercially and artistically successful productions which were not on the list he references that have had a profound impact on the industry but not necessarily at the rare zeitgeist-y, global blockbuster level. He defines a blockbuster as a show that spawns multiple US tours simultaneously due to gigantic demand, in addition to a long-term New York run. His larger point, aside from whether or not we agree on the definition of blockbuster, is we are long overdue for a ‘big one.’

So, wow, there’s an insights-driven, instincts-backed opinion. As of this spring, the gap will be about 9 years since the last ‘big one,’ whereas in the past it averaged out to every 3 or so years.

The question, for me, then becomes: “Why?” Why do we think we are in a 9-year drought? Is this a long-term problem or a cyclical problem? A Covid pause or a new post-Covid reality? A change in consumer preferences or a change in audience demographics?

But before we could engage in the “why,” I heard it was last-call at the bar so figured it was best to get my priorities straight for the night.

Oh, how I cherish passionate opinions from people passionate about our business. Thank you Nick for sharing. We have some great new shows on the horizon — and just maybe that “big one” we’ve been waiting for.